Example Chain-ladder method

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12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120












next, age-to-age factors determined calculating ratio of losses @ subsequent valuation dates. 24 months 36 months, accident year 1998 losses increased 43,169,009 45,568,919, corresponding age-to-age factor 45,568,919 / 43,169,009 = 1.056. tail factor selected (in case, 1.000) project latest valuation age ultimate.



finally, averages of age-to-age factors calculated. judgmental selections made after observing several averages. age-to-age factors multiplied obtain cumulative development factors.



the cumulative development factors multiplied reported (or paid) losses project ultimate losses.



incurred not reported can obtained subtracting reported losses ultimate losses, in case, 569,172,456 - 543,481,587 = 25,690,869.









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